Is IBM Becoming Big Brother?

In 1949, a George Orwell novel called Nineteen Eighty-Four was published. It is a story about a dystopian world set in 1984 wherein the totalitarian state is ruled by Big Brother.

In 1984, Steve Jobs together with director Ridley Scott released an Apple TV ads about the future of Macintosh. In reality it is a pun intended for IBM being a Big Brother in the computer industry.

In 2014, IBM launched Watson, a cognitive computer accessible thru cloud. IBM also launched a new processor called NeuroSynaptic, which works like a brain. IBM is very proud that they are at the forefront of the future of computers.

Quantum computing. Smart Analytics. Neural Networks. Cognitive Computers. Cloud Processing. It is starting to sound like we are making a Big Brother Artificial Intelligence like in sci-fi movies.

Still not convince, watch this.

Nineteen Eighty-Four didn’t happened in 1984, but it sure starts becoming a reality on 2014.

 

 

Japan Is In Dire Straits

I have been to Tokyo, Japan before the earthquake-tsunami-nuclear-malfunction hit the country. All I can say is I immediately fell in love with the city. Who won’t? Japanese food are fantastic, the cooks are master of subtle taste. You could hardly eat a bad meal & even the bad meal is still not so bad (unless you’re already spoiled by the great food). If you love authentic Japanese food, go to Japan. The people are also fantastic, they are very courteous when they talk to people even if you’re a “gaijin” or outsider. They kept on bowing and their language is very flower-y. Unlike in other Asian countries where sometimes rude is just plainly rude. Specially Korea, if there is one thing that the Koreans forgot to copy or imitate from the Japanese culture, it is no doubt the courtesy hands down. The city is so vast & fantastic no need to argue about that. Whenever you will ever go to Tokyo, skip the tour and jump right into it, believe me.

Great Food. Great People. Great City. So what’s wrong with Japan?

Even though it seems like a great country, the economy is not that great or fantastic for that matter. During the 1980s economic boom of Japan, the Nikkei stock market soared to almost 39000, today after more than 2 decades it is only hovering around 10000. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The main reason for the titanic collapse of the economy is because of the Japanese protectionist laws that they have built and still upholding to this day.

First, they kept on closing their borders from foreigners & gaijins. Gaijin which means outsider is not a nice word in Japan. They have one of the iron-clad laws when it comes to marrying a foreigner. The government goes as far as having surprise visit to check if the marriage is real. Now because of that protectionist law of immigration, they have an aging demographics which spells trouble to the new generation. Because who will pay for all the pensions, and who will replace the workforce of this aging populace? Sooner or later they will have to open the borders of Japan to let in the gaijins. Immigrating to Japan will be the next fad.

Second, they kept on propping up zombie companies that have failed 2 decades ago. They kept on saving failed corporations and bankrupt banks, giving them more money to keep the show running, so that the Japanese will have work and unemployment will not rise. Maybe that is one of the reason why everything cost so much in Japan. Because the new corporations have to compete with the failed corporations that has the monetary backing of the government. Another protectionist law to keep the workforce and to keep the failed corporations. But what these protectionist laws are doing to the whole economy is weakening the system. Because quite simply, the weak are supported until everything even the strong ones will become weak.

Third, they kept on printing money so that the yen will not rise and the major corporations that are earning in US Dollars will have a bigger income when converted back to yen. They don’t want the Japanese yen to rise in value because doing so will greatly affect the earnings of their export-driven corporations like Sony or Toyota which mostly earns in US Dollars. But this protectionist law will surely bring inflation to the economy making the prices of goods and services rise.

Fourth, they kept on protecting the major corporations from earning more money. Car companies like Toyota, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Honda are major beneficiaries of the “Kyoto Protocol”. One thing that is so nice in Japan is that there is hardly a smoke pollution. The main reason is that the cars are usually used 4-5 years then they are replaced with new ones. How did they do that? By dramatically increasing the renewal fees and taxes of the car’s registration that are 4-5 years old. So the car users have two choices with their old cars, buy a new one or pay a hefty fee.

3G CYCLE

Everything is a cycle. Weather, Evolution, Business, Economy, even your not-so-smart 5th grade teacher was part of it. I’m not here to talk about elementary teachers. What fascinates me nowadays is how these cycles are currently affecting the people. There is a theory that has kept on recurring to me since my 5^th grade teacher told us that there was a 3 generation cycle. I was not listening attentively to what she was saying that time, but what hit me was that the 3^rd generation is usually the culprit that diminishes what the 1^st generation has started to garner.

1^st generation – usually they came from a poor or oppressed family that they have all the aspiration & willpower to make a better life for their future generation.

2^nd generation – since witnessing their parents & grandparents not so affluent life, they work harder, bring in new ideas to expand what their parents has started which they hope to grow.

3^rd generation – having a very comfortable lifestyle, free from all the hassles & troubles of the world couldn’t care less what their grandparents built their empires on.

Maybe that is the reason why companies & corporations have an average lifespan of 150 to 200 years, it is either they are already out-of-business or merged & acquired by another company. By that time the heir of the company either knows less about the business, couldn’t care less or has their attention focused on money not with fundamentals that makes their company great. Who would not care less, between having everything and not having a major setback in life are board meetings wherein their presence & vote is all that really matters.

Big deal you say, but vast kingdoms have fallen due to this dilemma, from the Romans to Ottomans to 18^th century England.  It is all written in history yet we fail to address the issue.

United States of America as we know it today is not the same America we used to know and love before. Now they are face with the same dilemma that everyone is starting to find their way out of this mess. From 1870 to 1930, the 1^st generation Americans built America on what it is today. During that time railroad was the internet of their era, Industrial Revolution was on the way and a group known as the Robber Barons ruled America. The 2^nd generation Americans lived from 1930 to 1990. They expanded America into a manufacturing behemoth that favored GATT, multinational corporations & influencing everyone on planet Earth with their American lifestyle. This era is the 3^rd generation and also has all the quality of their generation. Today, the Industrial Revolution in America is already proclaimed dead, outsourcing is the order of the day. Their influence is also starting to wane as more kids are already accustomed with Asian culture. And their solution to their mounting debt problems is to take out more debts & print more money. Fantastic People.

The cogs of the history wheel is once again turning, this time I think the empires is shifting back to the east. After centuries of great empires in the west they are coming back to the east.

Europe has all these debt obligations that they can’t seem to get together. Spain, Portugal & Ireland are in a mess. Greece which was once upon a time a great nation has defaulted on its debts with no clear sight when they will get back on their feet. Italy is also having the same debt problems that sooner or later they will have to face the music. Who knows who is next in the Euro Zone.

China which came from an oppressed, communist society has rose up to power. Now it has the GDP of Japan with no signs of stopping, even during the 2008 crisis, China has managed to grow while the rest of the world economy is shrinking. The Philippines also didn’t shrink during 2008 because of OFW remittances. China has the hunger of the 1^st generation to make life a better one. It is funny when you read news nowadays about China having a huge poverty rate, real estate is in a bubble, their economy is heading for a hard landing. Who told anyone that growing up is not going to be pain in the ass. Of course it is, America had market crashes, world wars and poverty, yet they manage to conquer it. These are temporary setbacks, what is important is resilience. Lately, Westerners would rather have food stamps and mounting credit card debts than work a dirty job in a factory. The Chinese would love to work even for $2 a day and save their money to have a better life in the future. Now it is clear who is more resilient. Because when push comes to shove, it is the resilient people who would survive.

Everyone in Asia is slowly rising, Hong Kong, Singapore, South-East Asian Countries, India, even Japan to a certain extent.

Is this the decline of the western civilization as we know it? If it is, then be sure to take the front seat because as my 5^th grade teacher would love to say “This is the show of your lifetime.”